IHG, Naked Wines, employment (costs & levels), confidence & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

When opening sliced meat, cheese or whatever, I’ve come to the conclusion that ‘easy peel’ is to catering what ‘just a tiny scratch’ is to the medical profession when the latter is engaged in impaling a patient on the end of a massive needle.

Because neither fairly conveys the distress involved in whichever process is ongoing and, when feeling less than charitable, it’s easy to mistake such instructions for, shall we say, a lie.

Or maybe a forlorn hope at best and ‘tear here’ with reference to a packet of peanuts, dog biscuits or pretty much anything else generally means ‘tear here, there or anywhere and, at some point, after vigorous shaking and the help of gravity, you’ll get what you want.’

Either that or I’ve been doing it wrong all these years.

Anyway, not much to say other than that this morning but, before we move on to the news, where do you reckon the term ‘forlorn hope’ come from?

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Employment prospects:

Consumer confidence, often driven by the health of the jobs market alongside other issues, impacts the propensity to spend. With that in mind, it is unfortunate that the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development reports that a survey of 2,000 employers showed redundancy intentions at their highest level in 10 years, excluding the Covid period….

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Labour costs & employment levels:

The ONS has today updated on the UK labour market for the period from October to December 2024 saying that annual growth in employees’ average earnings for regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 5.9% and total earnings (including bonuses) was 6.0%. The ONS reports that ‘annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), was 2.5% for both regular and total pay….’

Business confidence:

The Federation of Small Business’ Small Business Index has revealed that optimism slumped at the end of last year across the UK’s SMEs. The measure fell to its lowest level outside the Covid-19 pandemic in Q4 last year to minus 64.5 from minus 24.4 in the previous quarter….

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Late night market:

A study by Obsurvant, conducted on behalf of the Night Time Industries Association, has investigated why young people in the UK are going out less than they did a year ago. Obsurvant reports that 61% of respondents have been going out less frequently in the past year, with only 16% stating they go out more after 10pm….

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Hospitality sector:

Lumina Intelligence has added its two pennies worth saying that the sector should ‘prepare for a slow start to 2025 but position itself for a gradual recovery.’ Lumina says ‘a recovery in confidence will be essential to unlock latent spending power and revitalise the market.’ it adds that ‘success will depend on balancing cost control with innovation, strategic pricing, and customer-centric offerings.’

Other news:

Buying food & drink. Lynx Purchasing reports that operators need to take care to overhaul their buying policies this spending saying ‘this isn’t a market in which operators can afford to be complacent about any aspects of their purchasing costs….’

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Late night: The NTIA tweets re a likely softening in the labour market that ‘for the night-time economy, these changes could be devastating. Already battling high operating costs, rising energy bills, and post-pandemic recovery, venues, bars, restaurants, and clubs now face even more pressure. Job losses, closures, and price increases will hit both businesses and consumers hard…..’

Closures: The BBPA has reported that some six pubs a week closed for good last year. Around 300 pubs vanished for good in 2024. It adds that, over the last five years, over 2,250 venues closed for good with the total number of pubs falling from 47,613 at the start of 2019 to 45,345 at the start of 2024…

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WFH: Work commissioned by Virgin Media O2 suggests that some 90% of employees are subject to some compulsory minimum office attendance.

Weather: Extreme weather events are expected continue to impact commodity based foodstuffs this year….

COMPANY NEWS:

The Times reports an activist investor as alleging that customers of Naked Wines are at risk of losing all their money because of the company’s failure to segregate client accounts. Crystal Amber points out that some 706,000 “angel” customers have money lodged with the company, which could be seen as unsecured in the event of the company encountering financial problems…

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Chopstix Group has reported numbers for the year to 28 April 2024 to Companies’ House saying that turnover rose to £64.5m turnover for the year, compared with £51.6m in the previous period. Adjusted EBITDA rose from £6.2m to £8.5m.

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS – FULL YEAR NUMBERS:

Intercontinental Hotel Group has reported FY24 numbers and our comments are set out below: Headline numbers: The company reports that revenue from reportable segments were up by 6.8% with operating profit down 2.3% at $1.041bn. PBT is down by 11.2% at $897m with basic EPS of 389.6c against 443.8c in the prior year. Adjusted EPS is up by 15% from 375.7c to 432.4c. The dividend has been increased by 10% to 167.6c.

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The Telegraph has reported that, although the pandemic-era staycation boom ‘supercharged demand in coastal property markets’, many properties are evolving from holiday lets to second homes in a move that may leave some resorts empty of visitors.

A Global Business Travel Association survey has suggested that Europe is one of the least upbeat markets with regard to business travel. Globally, some 48 per cent of travel buyers expected to travel more this year than they did last but, in Europe, the number fell to 37 per cent.

Uber Technologies has filed a lawsuit alleging DoorDash has been engaged in anticompetitive practices, leading to higher costs for both restaurants and customers.

OTHER LEISURE:

City AM reports that ‘Merlin Entertainments, the global giant which runs the likes of Alton Towers, Legoland and Madame Tussauds, has named a new full-time chief executive’. The company has confirmed Fiona Eastwood in the role after serving on an interim basis since November 2024.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For employment & wages data, see Pubs & Restaurants above.

Property agent CBRE comments on the UK economy saying that ‘we expect inflation to remain slightly above target, at around 2.5-3% throughout 2025….’

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Rightmove says that house prices are edging up ‘as buyer choice hits 10-year high.’ Rightmove says the average price of property coming to market has risen by 0.5% this month ‘which is lower than the 0.8% increase we usually see at this time of year.’

Sterling up at $1.2595 and €1.2054. Oil higher at $75.38. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.51%. World markets mostly better yesterday. London set to open down around 3 points as at 6.30am.

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