Consumer confidence, incomes, tariffs, Evoke, Cook’s Coffee & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I think you can generally tell when you’ve got one or more child back from university because, although there won’t be any sign of them during daylight hours, the dirty pots will stack up in the kitchen and the TV remote will be gone.

And, whilst I don’t really have a leg to stand on when it comes to pontificating about keeping the kitchen tidy, I’m prepared to do battle for the TV remote because, as Napoleon (probably) said, he who controls the battlefield, wins the day.

Or, in this case, the evening because, instead of watching some mindless drivel on YouTube, music videos or endless re-runs of Celebrity Bake-Off, we’ll be able to watch something cerebral, like, well, I can’t think what but it’s my telly and I want the remote.

And, while we’re at it, a lock on the fridge door might come in handy. Anyway, we’ve made it to the end of a truncated week and the weather looks set fair.

At least for April, that is, so it just remains to wish readers a good weekend and The Mighty Hull City the best of luck for Saturday. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer confidence:

GfK has updated on UK consumer confidence saying that it slipped a further four points in April to minus 23. It questions ‘after April’s cost increases, and with Trump’s tariffs threatening, are we on the verge of a new round of high inflation?….’

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Company ‘critical distress’.

Begbies Traynor reports that more companies are under pressure ahead of impending tariff and tax changes. It says that its measure of ‘critical distress’ found that the number of companies classed as such is up 13.1% year-on-year but down 3.1% in Q1 vs Q4 last year….

Disposable incomes

Ahead of The Bank of England’s next MPC meeting (on 8 May), a number of mortgage companies have been cutting their rates for borrowers. And savers, for that matter but, as the propensity to spend of borrowers is likely greater than that for savers, this should represent a boost to consumption…

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Inflation:

Coffee – Nestlé succeeded in passing on double-digit price increases for its coffee and chocolate in a number of markets. This helped the company, at a cost to its customers, to report better than expected Q1 sales. Alluding to tariffs, Chief executive Laurent Freixe said Nestle was facing an ‘environment of heightened macroeconomic and consumer uncertainty’.

Other news:

The MA reports that small business comparison site Bionic shows the cheapest pint in the UK is to be had in Burnley for £2.50. Relatively nearby Bury was in second place at £2.75. Further south, Gloucester was also cheap whilst the highest prices in the UK are being paid in Lisburn, Northern Ireland, at £6.10 and Brighton & Hove, at £6.05….

Export prices: The Trump administration has added a 25% tariff on all canned imported beer from earlier this month in a move that could (and will) stifle demand.

In the US, over 60% of restaurant owners now report that they are concerned about the possible impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Some tariffs have gone into effect and others are subject to a 90 day pause…

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COMPANY NEWS:

Naked Wines has updated on full year trading to end-March saying that its ‘FY25 performance continued to track in line with management’s expectations, and as such Naked Wines will report results in line with the previously communicated guidance…’

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Esquires Coffee, owned by Cooks Coffee Company, has opened three new stores in three consecutive weeks, which is a record for the company. This expansion is part of a larger strategy to grow the brand, with Cooks Coffee Company aiming for 100 Esquires stores in the UK and Ireland by 2026 and ultimately reaching 300 stores in the UK and Ireland within the next decade. CEO Charlie Webb writes to his team on Linked In ‘huge congratulations to our team for delivering three amazing stores in three weeks. This has come from hard work, long hours and pure dedication to the craft.’

City AM reports that ‘Budget boozer Wetherspoons has failed in its bid to argue that cider does not fall within the meaning of ‘alcoholic beverages’ in a VAT dispute with HMRC.’ Wetherspoons, City AM reports, submitted a claim to the taxman for £4.85m in overpaid VAT, which was rejected….

Punch Pubs & Co has ‘added to its growing portfolio with the acquisition of The Crown in Market Drayton.’ It says the unit ‘will now be part of Punch’s leased and tenanted estate.’ Punch adds that it is ‘continually on the lookout for more quality acquisitions, including packages and single-site opportunities that fit well with its modern and progressive vision and growth plans.’

Meatailer has reported numbers to Companies’ House showing that the chain returned to profit in the year to 30 June 2024 with a profit before tax of £118k , up from a loss of £65k in FY23….

Suntory chairman and CEO, Takeshi Niinami, has told Bloomberg that if President Trump does not back down from his recently imposed tariffs, ‘it is not going to be very attractive’. Suggesting that the company could back away from investing in the US, he says ‘the US is still a key country, but we have to have a broader portfolio of investment’.

PepsiCo has undershot Q1 estimates saying that organic volumes fell by 2% as costs rose. It says ‘we expect more volatility and uncertainty, particularly related to global trade developments, which we expect will increase our supply chain costs.’ The group’s shares were down 2.5% yesterday in early US trading.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Balkan Holidays is reported to have closed for business in the UK after nearly 60 years in operation. All forward bookings are reported to have been cancelled. The company writes on its website ‘may we kindly ask for patience as we process the refunds and appreciate your understanding.’ UK managing director Alexander Stoyanov says ‘the company is solvent, but it has become increasingly difficult to be competitive and profitable in the UK. Nobody will be left out of pocket and all suppliers will be paid.’

Fleurets updates on its views for the UK hotel market in Q2 saying that Covid-19 ‘remains a near distant event that continues to preface many discussions around recovery in the hotel sector’…..

BCD Travel has suggested that 65% of travellers prefer to travel by train rather than fly when both options are available. This even when costs are similar with the choice driven chiefly by convenience.

OTHER LEISURE:

Betting & gaming company Evoke has updated on Q1 trading saying that group revenue came in at £437m ‘representing growth of +1% (+2% constant currency), in line with the guidance previously outlined at the FY24 Results.’ The company says it ‘continues to expect revenues to return to stronger year-on-year growth from Q2 2025 onwards, with full year 2025 revenue growth expected to be consistent with the mid-term target of 5-9% annual growth. As of 22 April 2025, year-to-date revenue growth is approximately 4%….’

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Tesla’s market share in the EU, the UK and the EFTA trade zone fell to 2% in March, down from 2.9% in March 2024. Total sales in the geography were 28,502, down from 39,684 a year ago.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Tariffs:

Donald Trump is reportedly considering caving in in his trade war with China due to economic pressures. He could cut tariffs on imports to between 50pc and 65pc, according to The Wall Street Journal….

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The CBI reports that ‘manufacturing output volumes were broadly unchanged in the quarter to April.’ It says ‘domestic orders fell through the quarter, as did the volume of new export orders, albeit marginally….’

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Sterling higher at $1.3288 and €1.1726. Oil up at $62.92. UK 10 year gilt yield down 6 basis points at 4.50%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open around 19 points higher as at 6.30am.

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