Operators must Prepare for another Tricky Year

Coffer Peach:

• It’s tough out there — the data says so.
• Coffer Peach shows a flat summer followed by a negative September (LfL sales -0.9%, inflation +2.7%).
• Surprises: London underperformance (-1.6% vs. -0.7% in the regions) and restaurants faring worse than pubs (given the wetter, colder weather).
• Worryingly, negative like-for-likes and rising total sales implies that supply is still being dumped on a saturated market.

Cardlytics, Consumer Credit:

• Cardlytics data show a 1% fall in restaurant spending in Q3 2017. Pre-inflation growth has been slowing down for three years.
• Consumer spending pressures and credit-fuelled, new site-driven sales growth trends are well documented.
• Operators are navigating a treacherous market — Busaba Eathai is the latest to come unstuck, joining a list that reads like a who is (/was) who of casual diners.

Lynx Purchasing — Inflation to Stay for a While Yet?

• Given the conditions, operators have been focusing on fixing the foundations of a profitable festive period.
• Lynx is now warning that not enough thought has been given to what could prove ‘a tough start to 2018’.
• Good parties are often followed by a hangover… Operators will continue to battle on two fronts (rising prices and falling demand) in the new year.

Put your Head in the Sand or Pull up the Drawbridge?

• Forgive us for sounding like a broken record, but the game is changing. We have been saying as much for a while.
• Those who are oblivious to, or are steadfastly ignoring, sector headwinds continue to expand in a space race (or should that be dash for trash?)
• More prudent and/or experienced operators are now calculating just how long they can hold their breath underwater.