Leisure Spending, JDW, Brexit

July 13 2016

Barclaycard has updated on Q2 spending, says ‘business as usual’

Barclaycard says consumer spending was +3.1% in Q2
April was +1.9% (known to have been sluggish) & May & June were +3.6%
Spending in pubs & restaurants (+12.1% and +11.6%) was impacted by football & by higher contactless limits (£20 to £30). This will annualise out in September
Increased card usage does perhaps devalue somewhat the above data
BCD data showed spending holding up ‘comparatively well’ in the week following the EU vote with spend +2.1% on the prior week

Barclaycard’s sting in the tail:

BCD says its ‘headline number hid some mixed underlying news’
It says the usual pay-week spending rise in pubs & restaurants didn’t happen in June
It says it saw ‘both entering into negative territory – dropping 0.44 per cent and 0.46 per cent respectively in 7dys beginning 24 June’
It says this is in ‘stark contrast’ to the 20.5% & 20.1% growth seen in same week of May
It says ‘consumers may have adopted a cautious mind-set around discretionary spending in the days after the referendum result.’

Wetherspoon & other comments:

JDW cautioned against doom-mongering (this from Mr Martin) but said trading was improved
It did suggest that 3% LfLs would be hard to maintain & said they could slip to nearer 1%
There ‘was no sign of a slowdown’ but added ‘it had ‘prospered in previous recessions’
Incoming comments have been thin on the ground with operators maybe too busy or too depressed to respond. Some suggested it was business as usual

Conclusion:

Too early, far too early but at some point accusations of doom-mongering & calls to ‘banish pessimism’ will be superseded by hard facts